Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 37.717443 44.673173 52.338803 61.384338 71.735588 83.179626 96.756592
2024-11-03 28.194213 37.570612 48.938331 63.604229 81.879285 103.747118 131.722622
2024-11-10 23.237603 33.895906 47.782567 66.912917 92.251498 124.297425 167.466903
2024-11-17 19.732808 31.086470 46.801425 69.651278 101.444612 143.458066 202.383320
2024-11-24 16.485136 27.894337 44.587289 70.069515 107.108331 157.966517 231.820616
2024-12-01 13.375647 24.276959 41.108716 68.023693 108.783642 166.776406 253.717985
2024-12-08 11.438134 22.122584 39.434703 68.275668 113.540615 179.942321 282.228451
2024-12-15 10.017276 20.560181 38.422362 69.313217 119.381441 194.859196 313.948353
2024-12-22 7.827463 17.231131 34.014018 64.313099 115.250298 194.426179 322.731719
2024-12-29 7.041154 16.368692 33.696299 66.017521 121.866587 210.677552 357.460966
2025-01-05 6.042421 14.902023 32.083605 65.262187 124.268753 220.351688 382.420995
2025-01-12 5.894643 15.167024 33.707417 70.393283 136.961462 247.150318 435.635157
2025-01-19 4.627888 12.877825 30.322229 66.392930 134.238189 249.854711 452.562507
2025-01-26 4.157946 12.315928 30.342337 68.912944 143.487947 273.413895 505.489359
2025-02-02 3.831411 12.024362 30.872945 72.470474 154.910226 301.390982 567.377442
2025-02-09 3.493982 11.624065 31.096202 75.403229 165.361471 328.283691 628.863579
2025-02-16 3.035433 10.783039 30.188283 75.850982 171.034042 347.013838 677.273742
2025-02-23 2.496742 9.562286 28.178846 73.661245 171.269267 355.866257 708.806659
2025-03-02 2.168922 8.875380 27.340958 73.930983 176.419194 373.980395 757.642975
2025-03-09 1.924032 8.380553 26.902278 75.041566 183.356559 395.795835 814.196475
2025-03-16 1.465843 7.006683 23.887419 69.687947 176.130114 390.098062 819.971067
2025-03-23 1.327828 6.734640 23.842233 71.513312 184.529045 415.148802 884.099132
2025-03-30 1.127252 6.151441 22.798796 70.704438 187.011582 428.623189 926.987399